Can Audits Shift the Battleground? Supply Chain Certifications and Conflict Dynamics in the Congo

Abstract

We examine the impact of conflict-free certifications for small-scale gold mines, introduced to comply with the Dodd-Frank Act, on conflict dynamics in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. While Dodd-Frank enactment itself did not significantly alter conflict patterns, actual certifications displaced armed group-initiated conflicts from within a 10-kilometer radius around certified mines to other mining areas 25-75 kilometers away. Consistent with full displacement, overall conflict intensity within a 75-kilometer radius of certified mines remains largely unchanged, and conflict intensity is not decreasing in certification frequency at the aggregate territory level. Our findings suggest that conflict mineral certifications prompt armed groups to reallocate their protective activities from uncertified to certified mines but ultimately fail to contribute toward resolving the armed conflict in the Congo.

Keywords: Conflict-free certification, Conflict, Armed groups, Small-scale mining, Artisanal mining, Mineral supply chain, Supply chain due diligence, Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC, Dodd-Frank Act Provision 1502

JEL Classification: D74, E26, G18, G38, K22, K23, M42, N47, N57, O13, Q34, Q38