How Long is Long Enough: Using Abbreviated Criminal Histories for Pretrial Assessment Instruments?

32 Pages Posted: 27 Nov 2023

See all articles by Matthew DeMichele

Matthew DeMichele

RTI International

Christopher Inkpen

RTI International

Ian Silver

RTI International

Jason Walker

RTI International

Date Written: October 27, 2023

Abstract

The debate over pretrial assessment instruments focuses largely on the potential for instruments to exacerbate racial disparities. This study examines the effects of using different recall periods for the criminal history items on the New Criminal Arrest (NCA) scale from the Public Safety Assessment. Using jail admission data from a large jurisdiction, we varied the recall period – from 1 to 10 years prior to the current arrest – for the criminal history items on the NCA scale and examined scoring differences and the predictive validity of the tool by race. The results showed reductions in the proportion of Black people scored as high risk and no loss in validity using a shorter criminal history review. The current study demonstrates that shorter recall periods for criminal history items on pretrial instruments could potentially provide a direct and practical strategy to mitigate the effects of mass incarceration, while maintaining predictive validity.

Keywords: risk assessment, pretrial, disparity, mass incarceration

Suggested Citation

DeMichele, Matthew and Inkpen, Christopher and Silver, Ian and Walker, Jason, How Long is Long Enough: Using Abbreviated Criminal Histories for Pretrial Assessment Instruments? (October 27, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4615029 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4615029

Matthew DeMichele (Contact Author)

RTI International ( email )

PO Box 12194
Washington, DC 20036-3209
United States

Christopher Inkpen

RTI International ( email )

Ian Silver

RTI International ( email )

Raleigh, NC
United States

Jason Walker

RTI International

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