Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the Under-5 Mortality Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter (Pm2.5) in South Asia

22 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2023

See all articles by Wahida Musarrat Anita

Wahida Musarrat Anita

Kyoto University

Athicha Uttajug

Hokkaido University

Xerxes Tesoro Seposo

Nagasaki University - Department of Global Health

Kengo Sudo

Nagoya University

Makiko Nakata

Kindai University

Toshihiko Takemura

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Hirohisa Takano

Kyoto University

Taku Fujiwara

Kyoto University

Kayo Ueda

Hokkaido Univeristy

Abstract

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under 5 years especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a log-linear concentration-risk function from a previous review to estimate under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. This risk function, with a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 µg/m3, was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to estimate under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutant at the source, EoP)  and  2°C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010–2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045–2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2°C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific estimates of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, ambient PM2.5, Climate change, mitigation scenarios, South Asia

Suggested Citation

Anita, Wahida Musarrat and Uttajug, Athicha and Seposo, Xerxes Tesoro and Sudo, Kengo and Nakata, Makiko and Takemura, Toshihiko and Takano, Hirohisa and Fujiwara, Taku and Ueda, Kayo, Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the Under-5 Mortality Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter (Pm2.5) in South Asia. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4619450 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4619450

Wahida Musarrat Anita (Contact Author)

Kyoto University ( email )

Yoshida-Honmachi
Sakyo-ku
Kyoto, 606-8501
Japan

Athicha Uttajug

Hokkaido University ( email )

5 Kita 8 Jonishi, Kita Ward
Hokkaido Prefecture
Sapporo, 060-0808
Japan

Xerxes Tesoro Seposo

Nagasaki University - Department of Global Health ( email )

Kengo Sudo

Nagoya University ( email )

Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku
Nagoya-City, 4648601
Japan

Makiko Nakata

Kindai University ( email )

Higashiosaka, Osaka
Japan

Toshihiko Takemura

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Hirohisa Takano

Kyoto University ( email )

Yoshida-Honmachi
Sakyo-ku
Kyoto, 606-8501
Japan

Taku Fujiwara

Kyoto University ( email )

Kayo Ueda

Hokkaido Univeristy ( email )

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