Fossil Materials Demand within Deep Decarbonization Scenarios: A Feasibility Assessment

38 Pages Posted: 2 Nov 2023

See all articles by Gabriel Alexandre Lima Cardoso

Gabriel Alexandre Lima Cardoso

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Joana Portugal-Pereira

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Pedro R. R. Rochedo

Khalifa University

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Abstract

Without accounting for fossil fuel uses as feedstock to meet non-energy demands related to final use sectors growth, the Illustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs) evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) might become challenging. Non-energy demands are anticipated to rise due to population growth and improved welfare. By focusing on the most representative products of the petrochemical sector, we show that even pathways with materials demand reduction assumptions do not meet final use demands under deep decarbonization pathways, presenting shares in excess of 100% of the primary energy available for natural gas and oil in 2100. This means that deeper materials policies should be fostered to consistently reduce the use of oil and gas.

Keywords: petrochemical sector, Decarbonization, biomaterials, recycling, IAMs

Suggested Citation

Lima Cardoso, Gabriel Alexandre and Szklo, Alexandre and Portugal-Pereira, Joana and Rochedo, Pedro R. R. and Schaeffer, Roberto, Fossil Materials Demand within Deep Decarbonization Scenarios: A Feasibility Assessment. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4621467 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4621467

Gabriel Alexandre Lima Cardoso (Contact Author)

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) ( email )

Athos da Silveira Ramos 149
Rio de Janeiro, 21941-909
Brazil

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Joana Portugal-Pereira

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Pedro R. R. Rochedo

Khalifa University ( email )

Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Brazil

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