Fossil Materials Demand within Deep Decarbonization Scenarios: A Feasibility Assessment

Abstract

Without accounting for fossil fuel uses as feedstock to meet non-energy demands related to final use sectors growth, the Illustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs) evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) might become challenging. Non-energy demands are anticipated to rise due to population growth and improved welfare. By focusing on the most representative products of the petrochemical sector, we show that even pathways with materials demand reduction assumptions do not meet final use demands under deep decarbonization pathways, presenting shares in excess of 100% of the primary energy available for natural gas and oil in 2100. This means that deeper materials policies should be fostered to consistently reduce the use of oil and gas.

Keywords: petrochemical sector, Decarbonization, biomaterials, recycling, IAMs