Labour Pathways for an Energy-Exporting Country in a Net-Zero Transition

Abstract

We examine the employment implications of a net-zero transition and establishment of clean energy systems for an historically significant energy exporting country, through a case study of Australia. The labour impacts of a multi-decadal transition are simulated, for a wide range of energy technologies, resources and activities, and are assessed according to occupation, lifecycle stage, education and skill requirements. Across all modelled energy system net-zero scenario pathways, by mid-century, the total gross employment created for the domestic and export sectors varies between 210-490 thousand and 350-510 thousand, respectively. While there are periodic construction and installation booms, the need to build out energy system infrastructure at large-scale over a number of decades results in those jobs continuing over the same timeframe. There is also a growing need for a large ongoing workforce for operations and maintenance of new energy system assets. This constitutes an increase from 1% of the total energy sector workforce in 2020 to between 3-4% employed by 2060. Those employed in domestic energy markets are modelled to work primarily in areas of utility solar PV, onshore wind, batteries and electricity transmission and distribution activity, while the export market jobs are dominated by clean hydrogen production and shipping supply chain activities. Crucially, these export jobs are unevenly distributed across the country, in regions of highest quality solar resource. All states and territories experience net job growth across each decade to 2060. However, in a few sub-state regions, net job losses occur in the short-term to 2030, primarily associated with closures of coal mining and power generation assets and to a lesser extent with reductions in natural gas activity.

Keywords: labour, employment, net-zero emissions, exports, hydrogen