Despite Disruptions, US-China Trade is Likely to Grow

19 Pages Posted: 9 Nov 2023

See all articles by Megan Hogan

Megan Hogan

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Peterson Institute for International Economics; Institute for International Economics

Date Written: October 19, 2023

Abstract

The United States and China hit record trade levels in 2022, despite a prickly relationship, suggesting that calls for severe or even total economic decoupling between the world’s two economic superpowers may be ill-advised, say Hogan and Hufbauer. The dollar value of US-China trade grew significantly between 2019 and 2022, notwithstanding declines in trade flows of certain products such as semiconductors and aircraft due to the trade war. The persistence and even growth of the two countries’ total trade despite political and economic disputes reflects the mutual benefit that private firms see in this commercial relationship. The authors conclude that partial decoupling between the United States and China has not, so far, redrawn the world trade map. Nor does it seem likely to do so on an aggregate trade basis between now and 2025.

Suggested Citation

Hogan, Megan and Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Despite Disruptions, US-China Trade is Likely to Grow (October 19, 2023). Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 23-14, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4627573

Megan Hogan

Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Contact Author)

Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1903
United States

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