The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion

40 Pages Posted: 12 Nov 2003 Last revised: 30 Jun 2010

See all articles by Graciela Kaminsky

Graciela Kaminsky

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); George Washington University - Department of Economics

Carmen M. Reinhart

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Carlos A. Vegh

Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS); University of Maryland - Department of Economics; University of California at Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: November 2003

Abstract

Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided.

Suggested Citation

Kaminsky, Graciela and Reinhart, Carmen M. and Vegh, Carlos A., The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion (November 2003). NBER Working Paper No. w10061. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=463428

Graciela Kaminsky (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.gracielakaminsky.com/

Carmen M. Reinhart

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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United States

Carlos A. Vegh

Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1984
United States

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States

University of California at Los Angeles ( email )

Box 951477
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United States
310-825-7371 (Phone)
310-825-9528 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://vegh.sscnet.ucla.edu

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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