Electoral Campaign Attacks: Theory and Evidence

99 Pages Posted: 30 Nov 2023

See all articles by Marcos Nakaguma

Marcos Nakaguma

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics

Danilo Souza

University of São Paulo (USP)

Date Written: November 15, 2023

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of electoral campaign attacks. We first propose a model to examine the main factors that influence candidates' decisions to attack. Our theoretical analysis yields a number of predictions which we test using information from "right of reply" lawsuits filed in Brazil. Our empirical analysis exploits a regression discontinuity design based on virtual ties between 2nd and 3rd place candidates to show that candidates with an electoral advantage are more likely to receive an attack. We then exploit another discontinuity to show that the patterns of campaign attacks differ significantly under single and dual ballot plurality.

JEL Classification: D72, D79, C29

Suggested Citation

Nakaguma, Marcos and Souza, Danilo, Electoral Campaign Attacks: Theory and Evidence (November 15, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4634314 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4634314

Marcos Nakaguma (Contact Author)

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics ( email )

Rua Itapeva 474 s.1202
São Paulo, São Paulo 01332-000
Brazil

Danilo Souza

University of São Paulo (USP)

Rua Luciano Gualberto, 315
São Paulo, São Paulo 14800-901
Brazil

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