How Can Emerging Economies Meet Development and Climate Goals in the Transport-Energy System? Modelling Co-Developed Scenarios in Kenya Using a Socio-Technical Approach

Abstract

Transport-energy transitions pose complex challenges that have been extensively studied in high-income countries in response to national mandates for climate action. Low- and middle-income countries, however, have low but rapidly growing motorisation rates and face very different challenges in adopting new technologies to foster economic development and ensure equitable, clean access to transportation. Here, we present a set of narrative scenarios for the future of the Kenyan transport-energy system co-developed through engagement with 41 local experts and decision-makers. Through the co-development of a Kenyan transport-energy systems model, we present a decision-support tool to assist policymakers at regional, national and international levels in building policy, project and finance pipelines to support the realisation of climate-compatible development objectives in the transport-energy sector. We quantify the impacts of those scenarios on transport-energy system outcomes including vehicle stock, energy consumption, emissions, fiscal implications from changing fuel tax revenues and grid implications from e-mobility uptake. It was found that Kenya can vastly expand transport services to a growing population in a manner compatible with improving equitable access to mobility and limiting future emissions to within its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. This transition will require strong policy in public transport provision, targeted support for electrification of road vehicles and significant investment in supporting infrastructure. Access to affordable finance, to government, businesses and individuals, is crucial to success in the transition. Kenyan policymakers can leverage international climate finance, which must be made available by the global community.

Keywords: Transport, energy, climate change, Modelling, Scenarios