A Successful Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Ecological Transition Policies in the EU Requires the European Commission to Broaden the Range of Its Modelling Tools

81 Pages Posted: 1 Dec 2023 Last revised: 13 Feb 2024

See all articles by Camille Souffron

Camille Souffron

Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS) d'Ulm

Pierre Jacques

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)

Date Written: February 12, 2024

Abstract

This paper presents a nuanced exploration of the current economic models used by the European Commission, highlighting their required complements in the context of ecological transition policies in the European Union, such as the European Green Deal. It emphasises the need for and value of incorporating a broader range of complementary modelling tools and models that illuminate aspects often abstracted in conventional approaches. This would permit to anticipate more adequately the impacts of the environmental crisis, environmental policies and transition strategies, and to assess their economic consequences. The authors discuss the theoretical and operational challenges faced by current models (New Keynesian DSGE and EEE-CGE types) and suggest alternative empirical modelling approaches developed in academic and public institutions. The aim of this work is both to provide an exhaustive review of complementary operational models in collaboration with their research teams, and to prioritise model development and guide discussions towards more effective policy recommendations. By integrating additional and complementary models having comparative advantages in addressing specific policy questions, this paper argues that the inventory of modelling tools of the European Commission could be enhanced. This paper makes a case for a more diversified, holistic and robust approach to economic modelling, to make them more capable of supporting the design of efficient, feasible, fair and socially acceptable ecological transition strategies. It also calls for an institutional convergence and interdisciplinary dialogue between modelling teams to improve tools and to provide effective and systemic guidance to policymakers in the EU.

Keywords: Ecological Transition Policies, European Green Deal, Economic Modelling, Ecological Economics, Integrated Assessment, Policy Analysis, Model Diversification

JEL Classification: C68, E17, E61, B50, Q54, Q58

Suggested Citation

Souffron, Camille and Jacques, Pierre, A Successful Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Ecological Transition Policies in the EU Requires the European Commission to Broaden the Range of Its Modelling Tools (February 12, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4640677 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4640677

Camille Souffron

Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS) d'Ulm ( email )

29 rue d'Ulm
Paris, 75005
France

Pierre Jacques (Contact Author)

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) ( email )

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
858
Abstract Views
2,810
Rank
60,644
PlumX Metrics