A Demo-Economic Model of the Industrial Revolution

15 Pages Posted: 12 Dec 2003

See all articles by John Komlos

John Komlos

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) - Faculty of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Marc Artzrouni

Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour

Abstract

This paper describes a two-sector demo-economic model (agricultural and non-agricultural sectors) applied to Europe and spanning the period from the neolithic agricultural revolution to the Industrial Revolution. The model describes the "incessant contest" between population growth and food production. As long as per capita agricultural output is above a critical minimum, the population is assumed to grow at a constant rate. When this output drops below the minimum, the population is subjected to random mortality "shocks" which lower the population until the production grows above the minimum. Society is thus in a "Malthusian trap". The average magnitude of the mortality crises is assumed to decrease as capital increases, which captures an increased "resistance" that comes with increased knowledge and technology. The slow accumulation of capital thus diminishes the severity of the mortality shocks; as a result both the population of the non-agricultural sector and capital grow sufficiently to bring about a permanent escape from the Malthusian trap, i.e. the Industrial Revolution.

Note: Downloadable document is in French.

Keywords: Industrial Revolution, Malthusian Trap

JEL Classification: N33, I12, I31

Suggested Citation

Komlos, John and Artzrouni, Marc, A Demo-Economic Model of the Industrial Revolution. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=464100 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.464100

John Komlos (Contact Author)

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Ludwigstrasse 28
Munich, D-80539
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Marc Artzrouni

Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour ( email )

Avenue du Doyen Poplawski
64000 Pau
France

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