"This Time it's Different" - Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice

26 Pages Posted: 4 Dec 2023

See all articles by Daniel Goller

Daniel Goller

University of Bern

Christian Gschwendt

University of Bern

Stefan C. Wolter

Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education (SKBF); University of Bern - Department of Economics

Abstract

In this paper, we show the causal influence of the launch of generative AI in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. There is a strong and long-lasting decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, which suggests great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Analyses based on the classification of occupations according to tasks, type of cognitive requirements, and the expected risk of automation to date show significant differences in the extent to which specific occupations are affected. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks, with high demands on language skills, and those whose automation risk had previously been assessed by experts as lower are significantly more affected by the decline. However, no differences can be found with regard to the proportion of routine vs. non-routine tasks.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, occupational choice, labor supply, technological change

JEL Classification: J24, O33

Suggested Citation

Goller, Daniel and Gschwendt, Christian and Wolter, Stefan C., "This Time it's Different" - Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice. IZA Discussion Paper No. 16638, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4651059 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4651059

Daniel Goller (Contact Author)

University of Bern ( email )

Gesellschaftsstrasse 49
Bern, BERN 3001
Switzerland

Christian Gschwendt

University of Bern

Gesellschaftsstrasse 49
Bern, 3001
Switzerland

Stefan C. Wolter

Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education (SKBF) ( email )

CH - 5000 Aarau
Switzerland
+41 62 835 23 90 (Phone)
+41 62 835 23 99 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.skbf-csre.ch

University of Bern - Department of Economics ( email )

Gesellschaftstrasse 49
Bern, CH-3012
Switzerland
+41 31 631 40 95 (Phone)
+41 31 631 39 92 (Fax)

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