When Will China Realize Urban-Rural Integration? A Case Study of 30 Provinces in China

Abstract

China has pledged to achieve integrated urban-rural development around 2045. However, the criteria for integrated urban-rural development have not yet been determined, as the best path for such development varies from province to province. Furthermore, it is also difficult to determine how to maximize the respective interests of urban and rural areas in the development process. In this paper, we identify the influencing factors of urban-rural integration in each province, use an evolutionary game model to obtain the Nash equilibrium values of cities and rural areas in each province. We find that the peak Nash equilibrium and cumulative Nash equilibrium values play a crucial role in determining the optimal path for integrated urban-rural development. Additionally, China’s degree of urban-rural integration development is closely tied to individual provinces, with some provinces potentially hindering national urban-rural integration development. Prioritizing development in provinces where Nash equilibrium differences between rural and urban areas are decreasing, followed by those with relatively stable differences, is essential for ensuring nationwide urban and rural integrated development. The results reveal that China’s Nash equilibrium values range from 0.02439 to 0.02242 between 2016 and 2045, with the highest cumulative Nash equilibrium value at 0.02975.

Keywords: Integrated urban-rural development, Urban-rural relationship, Evolutionary game theory, Nash equilibrium values, Chinese provinces.