Climate Strategies for Oil and Gas Production Under the Lens of an Integrated Assessment Model: The Case of Brazil

50 Pages Posted: 5 Dec 2023

See all articles by Letícia Coutinho

Letícia Coutinho

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Mariana Império

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Gerd Angelkorte

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Gabriela Silva

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Clarissa Bergman-Fonte

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Rebecca Draeger

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Bruno Cunha

Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Pedro R.R. Rochedo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia)

Abstract

Future projections of oil and gas demand suggest that their production will remain necessary. Although attention often focuses on emissions from the combustion of their products, oil and gas production is also a relevant global emission source. Hence, understanding the carbon performance of upstream activities in producing nations is vital for distinguishing producers in a climate-pressured global market. This work explores climate strategies for the oil and gas upstream sector, using Brazil as a case study. The sector´s emissions profile is evaluated under distinct national climate scenarios. The analysis employs BLUES, a national Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to access production volumes, mitigation measures applicable to the sector, and carbon dioxide removal potentials within the country to eventually offset the sector's remaining emissions. Results indicate sustained oil and gas production over the evaluated horizon (2020-2050) without compromising national climate goals, yet the sector's future emission trajectory does not align with decarbonization targets pursued by more ambitious oil-producing nations and industry players. Despite sectoral mitigation measures indicated by the model, substantial emissions remain until 2050. Conversely, the country offers ample offsetting opportunities with potential synergies for the sector, especially through BECCS. Furthermore, the acceptability of offset is also a topic for discussion.

Keywords: oil and gas production, GHG mitigation, Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), Carbon Dioxide Removal, CCS, carbon offsets

Suggested Citation

Coutinho, Letícia and Império, Mariana and Angelkorte, Gerd and Silva, Gabriela and Bergman-Fonte, Clarissa and Draeger, Rebecca and Cunha, Bruno and Rochedo, Pedro R.R. and Szklo, Alexandre and Schaeffer, Roberto, Climate Strategies for Oil and Gas Production Under the Lens of an Integrated Assessment Model: The Case of Brazil. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4655249 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4655249

Letícia Coutinho (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Mariana Império

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Gerd Angelkorte

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Gabriela Silva

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Clarissa Bergman-Fonte

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Rebecca Draeger

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Bruno Cunha

Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Av; Pasteur, 250
terreo - Bairro Maracana
Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 23890000
Brazil

Pedro R.R. Rochedo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Alexandre Szklo

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Largo de São Francisco
1, Centro
Rio de Janeiro, 22270000
Brazil

Roberto Schaeffer

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia) ( email )

Brazil

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