Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections

33 Pages Posted: 11 Dec 2023

See all articles by Matthieu Crozet

Matthieu Crozet

University of Paris-Saclay

Julian Hinz

European University Institute

Abstract

In international relations, sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy — France — by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countermeasures imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the French 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that about 15,700 votes for the main far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions’ impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.

Keywords: Trade sanctions, Elections, Embargo, Russia

Suggested Citation

Crozet, Matthieu and Hinz, Julian, Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4661010 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4661010

Matthieu Crozet (Contact Author)

University of Paris-Saclay ( email )

France

Julian Hinz

European University Institute ( email )

Villa Schifanoia
133 via Bocaccio
Firenze (Florence), Tuscany 50014
Italy

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