Geothermal Power in the United States: Techno-Economic Analysis

Abstract

As geothermal technology continues to gain momentum, it becomes increasingly essential for stakeholders to assess the economic feasibility of geothermal power projects when integrated into electricity markets. This study aimed to develop geographical maps demonstrating the techno-economic viability of developing the identified hydrothermal resources in the United States. Particularly, we optimized the design and operations of the upstream, midstream, and downstream system components to acquire the optimal levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and overall return on investment (ROI) per identified hydrothermal resource. This study integrated accurate techno-economic data including geothermal resource characteristics, capital and operational costs, power market forecasts, temperature-at-depth maps, weather patterns, amongst others. We developed an open-source software, called Flexible Geothermal Economics Modeling (FGEM), and used it to perform the techno-economic modeling and optimization considering various dispatch strategies. Under business-as-usual power market projections, the study results indicated a median LCOE of 84.3 $/MWh. Trading the generated power in the open electricity markets, 17 of the analyzed hydrothermal resources achieved ROIs greater than 200%, and nine achieved greater than 300%. Hence, there is a significant potential for commercializing geothermal resources even in the absence of power purchase agreements.

Keywords: geothermal, Techno-economic, Power Markets, United States