Resilience Assessment of the Global Liquefied Natural Gas Maritime Network in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

Abstract: The assessment of resilience in liquefied natural gas (LNG) maritime networks can inform policy designed to secure the global energy supply. Since the 1990s, geopolitical risks have become crucial to LNG supply. However, existing research does not adequately address the impact of major geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, on LNG maritime networks. Using 2021-2022 Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, we constructed a global LNG maritime network, including ports and chokepoints, to assess structural and resilience changes during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We then simulated changes in network resilience under various attack scenarios. The results indicate that the weighted degree of key nodes and the component of European port communities have changed. Despite improved invulnerability and recovery capabilities in 2022, the global LNG maritime network experienced a decline in resilience. Furthermore, intentional attacks on maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca, result in a much faster decline in network resilience compared to random attacks. These findings suggest that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed the resilience and structure of LNG maritime networks. For countries heavily dependent on LNG, it is important to prioritize the expansion of LNG receiving terminals and the diversification of LNG sourcing strategies.

Keywords: Keywords: Liquefied natural gas, Russia-Ukraine conflicts, Maritime network resilience, Maritime chokepoints