The Failure of COVAX: A Predictable Outcome

Abstract

COVAX, led by the World Health Organization and Gavi, was the primary international public effort aimed at making yet to be developed vaccines available to poorer countries during the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that COVAX failed to fulfill its own targets, let alone the broader goal of providing vaccine access for the bulk of poorer countries’ populations.  The contribution made by COVAX to poorer countries came only late in 2022, some 15-18 months after the time that many richer countries had vaccinated much of their population, and by which time many poorer countries had purchased their own vaccines (often also with  lower efficacy than those procured by rich countries). This failure could have been predicted, as it resulted from the weak conceptual thinking underlying COVAX.  The central source of the problem was simple and inescapable: in the context of Covid 19, which affected the entire world, COVAX was outcompeted for a limited supply of vaccines by richer countries which enjoyed greater purchasing power.  The failure of COVAX shows not only the necessity of adequate financing for a vaccine access initiative but the need to look beyond the Advance Market Commitment model.

Keywords: Covid-19 vaccines, COVAX, Advance Market Commitment, market power, Low- and lower-middle Income countries

JEL Classification: I1,I14,I15,L10,L11,L13,O31,O34,O38