Predicting Nursing Home Utilization Among the High-Risk Elderly

42 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2007 Last revised: 21 May 2008

See all articles by Alan M. Garber

Alan M. Garber

Stanford University - Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research; Government of the United States of America - Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Medical Center; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Thomas E. MaCurdy

Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: February 1989

Abstract

This paper explores the influence of various characteristics on nursing home utilization. It examines a targeted population of elderly individuals whose poor health and lack of social supports were expected to lead to heavy use of long-term care. We develop an empirical framework based on a transition probability model to describe the frequency and duration of nursing home admissions. Using longitudinal data on the high-risk elderly enrollees of the National Long-Term Care Demonstration ("Channeling" demonstration), we. find that a small set of characteristics distinguish individuals who are likely to be heavy utilizers of nursing homes from low utilizers. The factors associated with a high likelihood of institutionalization are not identical to the health characteristics associated with high mortality; for example, the likelihood of death increases with age, but nursing home utilization does not, when functional status and other characteristics are held constant. A somewhat healthier population might have used nursing homes more heavily than the Channeling participants, whose nursing home utilization was limited by high mortality.

Suggested Citation

Garber, Alan M. and MaCurdy, Thomas E., Predicting Nursing Home Utilization Among the High-Risk Elderly (February 1989). NBER Working Paper No. w2843. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=467567

Alan M. Garber (Contact Author)

Stanford University - Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research ( email )

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Stanford, CA 94305-6019
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Government of the United States of America - Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Medical Center

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United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Thomas E. MaCurdy

Stanford University ( email )

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Stanford, CA 94305
United States
650-723-3983 (Phone)
650-725-5702 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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