The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced?

40 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2024 Last revised: 1 Feb 2024

See all articles by Ivo Welch

Ivo Welch

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: January 30, 2024

Abstract

Shared socioeconomic pathways are perhaps the most influential economic policy analyses today. Yet, their design is problematic. Moreover, all five SSP baseline scenarios are based on empirically exceedingly improbable scenarios. An alternative — econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT components — suggests alternative emission scenarios, mapping into expected radiative forcing of about RCP 6.5, with a reasonable high-plausibility range from RCP 4.5 to RCP 7.0.

Keywords: IPCC, AR6, SSP, Climate

JEL Classification: Q54, Q55, Q66

Suggested Citation

Welch, Ivo, The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced? (January 30, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4681042 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4681042

Ivo Welch (Contact Author)

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