The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced?

Abstract

Shared socioeconomic pathways are perhaps the most influential economic policy analyses today. Yet, their design is problematic. Moreover, all five SSP baseline scenarios are based on empirically exceedingly improbable scenarios. An alternative — econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT components — suggests alternative emission scenarios, mapping into expected radiative forcing of about RCP 6.5, with a reasonable high-plausibility range from RCP 4.5 to RCP 7.0.

Keywords: IPCC, AR6, SSP, Climate

JEL Classification: Q54, Q55, Q66