Shaping the Eurasian Gas Market: the Geopolitics of Energy Market Regulation

Abstract

The common characterization of European Union (EU) and Russian external energy relations as liberal versus realist does not do justice to the efforts of both entities to shape energy market regulation in their shared neighborhood. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of energy regulation as a tool of strategic influence by examining from a geopolitical perspective how the EU, Russia and, to a lesser extent, China attempt to shape gas pricing and pipeline access regimes in the post-Soviet Eurasian space. A geopolitical analysis of regulatory convergence in the region helps understand how liberal concepts of energy regulation acquire a strategic function when exported to contested spheres of influence, with important consequences for the legitimacy and acceptability of these regulatory models. The EU, Russia and China recognize common principles of gas market regulation at the domestic level, but geopolitical considerations, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, prevent the implementation of these principles at the regional level, hindering the transition of this contested neighborhood towards more efficient energy systems and reduced dependence on Russian supplies.

Keywords: Energy geopolitics, liberalization, energy transition, Energy Community Treaty, Eurasian Economic Union, Belt and Road Initiative