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The Global Economic Burden of Dengue in 2020–2050: Estimates and Projections for 141 Countries and Territories
22 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2024
More...Abstract
Background: The global incidence of dengue has notably increased in recent decades. Acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the economic implications of dengue is crucial for developing informed, evidence-based policies. However, the global economic impact of dengue, and its distribution across countries, requires further in-depth and systematic investigation.
Methods: We calculated the economic burden of dengue in 141 countries and territories using a macroeconomic model. This model accounted for (i) the effect of dengue-related morbidity and mortality on labor supply and productivity, (ii) age-sex-specific variations in education and work experience among dengue patients, and (iii) diversion of savings and investment towards prevention and control of dengue, including healthcare costs.
Results: We estimated that dengue will impose a burden of 306 billion international dollars (INT$, at constant 2017 prices) on the global economy between 2020–2050. This economic impact is akin to a 0.009% levy on global gross domestic product (GDP). The highest aggregate economic burdens are projected in India (INT$ 125 billion), Indonesia (INT$ 45 billion), China (INT$ 31 billion), the Philippines (INT$ 21 billion), South Korea (INT$ 20.5 billion), Malaysia (INT$ 7.8 billion), Pakistan (INT$ 4.4 billion), Thailand (INT$ 4.4 billion), Mexico (INT$ 4.3 billion), Brazil (INT$ 3.8 billion), Bangladesh (INT$ 2.9 billion), Vietnam (INT$ 2.9 billion), France (INT$ 2.7 billion), Colombia (INT$ 2.3 billion), and Sri Lanka (INT$ 1.8 billion). Among income groups, lower-middle-income countries are anticipated to bear the overwhelming majorities of both dengue’s global health (90.2%) and economic (68.8%) impacts. In particular, India, Indonesia, and Philippines face the three largest health burdens among all countries in disability-adjusted life years. In addition, upper-middle-income countries, including China, Malaysia, Thailand, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia, are expected to experience a substantial, albeit smaller, economic loss (18.9% of the global economic loss).
Conclusion: The macroeconomic burden of dengue is considerable and unevenly distributed across countries, world regions, and income levels. Our study emphasizes the pressing need for global investment in mitigating dengue’s health and economic burdens.
Funding: The research reported in this paper was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. It was also supported by the Horizon Europe (HORIZON-MSCA-2021-SE-01) project number 101086139-PoPMeD-SuSDeV.
Declaration of Interest: We declare no competing interests.
Keywords: Economic burden, Dengue, Global health
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation