Constructing Confidence Intervals for BIFSG Disparity Estimates

5 Pages Posted: 28 Jan 2024

See all articles by Elena Derby

Elena Derby

Government of the United States of America - Joint Committee on Taxation

Connor Dowd

Government of the United States of America - Joint Committee on Taxation

Jacob Mortenson

Joint Committee on Taxation, US Congress

Date Written: January 12, 2024

Abstract

This paper describes a method to construct confidence intervals for estimates of disparities in outcomes between racial/ethnic groups when race and ethnicity are estimated using Bayesian Improved First Name and Surname Geocoding (BIFSG). Standard errors produced by regression packages systematically understate the uncertainty in these estimates because they fail to incorporate additional noise arising from the estimation of race and ethnicity. This can lead to false confidence in assessing both the direction and magnitude of disparities. Our approach uses a bootstrapping procedure, and reflects substantially more of the uncertainty introduced when using BIFSG. However, this procedure does not correct for any statistical bias in disparity estimates associated with using BIFSG.

Keywords: BIFSG, Race, Ethnicity, Confidence Interval, Inference, Standard Error, Tax

JEL Classification: H2, C11, C81

Suggested Citation

Derby, Elena and Dowd, Connor and Mortenson, Jacob, Constructing Confidence Intervals for BIFSG Disparity Estimates (January 12, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4691949 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4691949

Elena Derby

Government of the United States of America - Joint Committee on Taxation ( email )

441 2nd st SW
Washington, DC 20002
United States

Connor Dowd (Contact Author)

Government of the United States of America - Joint Committee on Taxation ( email )

441 2nd st SW
Washington, DC 20002
United States

Jacob Mortenson

Joint Committee on Taxation, US Congress ( email )

502 Ford House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.jacobmortenson.com

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
62
Abstract Views
173
Rank
642,431
PlumX Metrics