Institutions Matter, Lines Don't: Unveiling Mexico's Redistricting Process

Abstract

Redistricting tends to be a highly politicized process because it shapes the translation of votes to seats. Since Mexico adopted automated redistricting in 1996, the electoral management board (EMB) has successfully rebalanced districts while considering partisan input in a closed-door environment. Despite these processes have been welcomed by political actors, the electoral bureaucracy has recently been accused of making biased decisions against the ruling party (MORENA). In this article, we examine whether popular criticisms are justified and if there is any evidence of administrative wrongdoing. Our analysis reveals that redistricting matters––as an institution––and that plans suggested by parties have surprisingly marginal partisan effects.

Keywords: electoral integrity, electoral management, redistricting, party strategic interaction, algorithmic optimization, gerrymandering