Transforming Desertification Patterns in Asia: Evaluating Trends, Drivers, and Climate Change Impacts from 1990 to 2022

Abstract

Owing to the combined effects of climate change and human activities, the type of desertification in the arid regions of Asia has undergone profound changes, and the problem of desertification has become increasingly prominent. To help address this problem, this study clarifies the transformation trends and characteristics of desertification types across Asia and discusses key areas for desertification prevention and control. Based on a series of Landsat satellite images, combined with the classification method of the desertification degree and a machine learning model, the desertification types, trends, and conversion degrees in the arid regions of Asia were systematically evaluated. In addition, the impact mechanism of climate change on the conversion between desertification types was evaluated. The primary results were as follows: (1) Various desertification types in the arid areas of Asia from 1990 to 2022 exhibited evident time series characteristics. Extremely severe desertification expanded from 1990 to 2009 and subsequently shrunk; (2) The degree of desertification in the arid regions of Asia exhibited different change characteristics in different periods, and the converted area of ​​the same conversion type was different in different periods; (3) Different desertification conversion types in different periods have different drivers; however, overall, soil moisture has the greatest contribution to desertification conversion type. These results provide a scientific reference for the formulation of reasonable desertification prevention and control policies.

Keywords: desertification, SHAP, Landsat, Asia, dry land