Firm-Level Export and Import Survival Over the Business Cycle

52 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2024

See all articles by Silviano Esteve-Pérez

Silviano Esteve-Pérez

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Gregory Corcos

Université d'Abomey-Calavi (UAC) - Ecole Polytechnique

Salvador Gil-Pareja

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Yuanzhe Tang

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

This paper examines how business cycle conditions affect the dynamics of exporting and importing firms, using French micro-level data on trade spells initiated over the period 1998-2015. First, we find firm reallocation during recessions. Entry rates fall while exit rates increase. Both entrants and exiters exhibit higher productivity, suggesting tougher selection into exporting/importing. Second, business cycle conditions at times of entry have persistent effects on exporters and importers: cohorts ’born’ in recessions have a systematically lower exit rate at any age. Firms entering export markets in recessions enjoy a one-off premium to their spell duration prospects with a similar age-dependence path. Third, conclusions are largely unaffected when we use a joint model of export and import duration. Our estimates reveal a positive correlation in the unobservable factors. Overall, we find that business cycle conditions affect trade participation in the short- and long-run, with recessions having both ’cleansing’ and ’scarring’ effects.

Keywords: firm export and import survival, business cycle, inflow heterogeneity

Suggested Citation

Esteve-Pérez, Silviano and Corcos, Gregory and Gil-Pareja, Salvador and Tang, Yuanzhe, Firm-Level Export and Import Survival Over the Business Cycle. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4696412 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4696412

Silviano Esteve-Pérez (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Gregory Corcos

Université d'Abomey-Calavi (UAC) - Ecole Polytechnique ( email )

Cotonou
Benin

Salvador Gil-Pareja

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Yuanzhe Tang

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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