Quantifying the Social Value of a Universal COVID-19 Vaccine and Incentivizing Its Development

57 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2024

See all articles by Rachel Glennerster

Rachel Glennerster

University of Chicago

Thomas Kelly

1Day Sooner

Claire McMahon

University of Chicago

Christopher Snyder

Dartmouth College

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 16, 2024

Abstract

A booster of the COVID-19 vaccine targeting the prevailing Omicron variant did not become available in the United States until a year after the variant was first detected. This pattern of developing, testing, and distributing a variant-specific booster may become the default response to further waves of COVID-19 caused by new variants. An innovation with realistic scientific potential—a universal COVID-19 vaccine, effective against existing and future variants—could provide much more value by preempting new variants. Averaged across Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the incremental value to the U.S. population of a universal COVID-19 vaccine to be $1.5–$2.6 trillion greater than variant-specific boosters (depending on how the arrival rate of variants is modeled). This social value eclipses the cost of an advance market commitment to incentivize the universal vaccine by several orders of magnitude.

Note:

Funding Information: Institute for Progress.

Conflict of Interests: None.

Keywords: vaccine, COVID-19, coronavirus, universal vaccine, advance market commitment

Suggested Citation

Glennerster, Rachel and Kelly, Thomas and McMahon, Claire and Snyder, Christopher, Quantifying the Social Value of a Universal COVID-19 Vaccine and Incentivizing Its Development (January 16, 2024). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2024-05, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4697331 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4697331

Rachel Glennerster (Contact Author)

University of Chicago ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Thomas Kelly

1Day Sooner ( email )

DE
United States

Claire McMahon

University of Chicago ( email )

Chicago
United States

Christopher Snyder

Dartmouth College ( email )

Department of Sociology
Hanover, NH 03755
United States

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