Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities

79 Pages Posted: 18 Jan 2024

See all articles by Massimo Morelli

Massimo Morelli

Bocconi University

Luca Bellodi

Bocconi University

Frédéric Docquier

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER); Université catholique de Louvain; Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER); CREAM, Centre for Research on Environmental Appraisal & Management, UK; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Stefano Iandolo

University of Salerno

Riccardo Turati

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 18, 2024

Abstract

We study the effect of local exposure to populism on net population movements by citizenship status, gender, age and education level in the context of Italian municipalities.
We present two research designs to estimate the causal effect of populist attitudes and politics. Initially, we use a combination of collective memory and trigger variables as an instrument for the variation in populist vote shares across national elections. Subsequently, we apply a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of electing a populist mayor on population movements. We establish three converging findings. First, the exposure to both populist attitudes and policies, as manifested by the vote share of populist parties in national election or the close election of a new populist mayor, reduces the attractiveness of municipalities, leading to larger population outflows. Second, the effect is particularly pronounced among young, female, and highly educated natives, who tend to relocate across Italian municipalities rather than internationally. Third, we do not find any effect on the foreign population. Our results highlight a foot-voting mechanism that may contribute to a political polarization in Italian municipalities.

Keywords: Migration, Human Capital, Populism, Italian Politics

JEL Classification: D72, F22, F52, J61

Suggested Citation

Morelli, Massimo and Bellodi, Luca and Docquier, Frédéric and Docquier, Frédéric and Iandolo, Stefano and Turati, Riccardo, Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities (January 18, 2024). BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 216, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4699106 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4699106

Massimo Morelli (Contact Author)

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

Luca Bellodi

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://lucabellodi.com

Frédéric Docquier

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte des Sciences
Campus Belval – Maison des Sciences Humaines
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte des Sciences
Campus Belval – Maison des Sciences Humaines
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

Université catholique de Louvain ( email )

IRES
Place Montesquieu 3
Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://https://perso.uclouvain.be/frederic.docquier/

CREAM, Centre for Research on Environmental Appraisal & Management, UK

University of Newcastle
NE1 7RU Newcastle Upon Tyne
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Stefano Iandolo

University of Salerno ( email )

Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132
Fisciano, Salerno 84084
Italy

Riccardo Turati

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona ( email )

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