War and Presidential Greatness: Updating Henderson and Gochenour’s Results

Abstract

This paper revisits Henderson and Gochenour's (2013) research on the link between presidential greatness and war intensity, expanding it with additional historical data. We examine whether more intense wars, as indicated by military deaths per capita, positively influence historians' ratings of presidential greatness, introducing new controls for GDP growth. Our findings reveal that post-2000, historians tend to reward presidents overseeing intense wars, whereas this trend is weaker in mid-to-late 20th-century assessments. This discrepancy suggests a shift in historical perspectives on presidential greatness related to war intensity. We conclude that the valuation of war intensity as a component of presidential greatness has evolved over time, presenting an intriguing empirical pattern for future research.

Keywords: War, Presidential Greatness, Historian Surveys