A Century of Regime Change in Latin American and the Caribbean

Abstract

: Latin America and the Caribbean has historically been characterised by political instability. While parts of the region were democratic a century ago, and parts of the Caribbean introduced representative institutions well before most European countries, history and a long literature documents the decline of those institutions in the late 19th and 20th century. This paper adds to this literature by providing new data that cover regime types and regime transitions between 1920 and 2023 for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We first expand the Bjørnskov-Rode database on regime types and transitions in two directions: 1), we add the 30 years between 1920 and 1950 to the data; and 2), we add a number of indicators capturing specific vote restrictions, including female suffrage, property and income restrictions, and literacy requirements. We thus observe the full transition from autocracy to modern democracy, including several setbacks. Second, we explore the determinants of the 44 episodes of autocratisation and 77 episodes of democratisation in the 43 countries represented in the database, as well as how they relate to the approximately 200 documented coup attempts in the region. Combining this data allows us, for example, to assess the likelihood of democratising coups and their opposite and how economic development affects democratisation.

Keywords: Democracy, Autocracy, Institutional Change, Latin America

JEL Classification: E02, N96, O17