Exposure to Refugees and Voting Behavior: A Spatial Analysis

Abstract

This article explores the causal effect of fine-scale exposure to refugees via sudden and unanticipated refugee camp settlements on support for the populist radical right. I further examine the spillover effects of such exposure shocks on adjacent neighborhoods using spatial econometrics techniques. This study employs a difference-in-difference approach in a fixed effects framework with varying control groups, such as pre-treated neighborhoods or matched control groups. The short-term results display that exposure to refugee camps increases support for the Swedish radical right party in consensus with theories on intergroup conflict/competition. These exposure effects also spill over to the adjacent neighborhoods, albeit the effects become smaller with neighborhood degree. Hence, this article shows that exposure effects on electoral outcomes vary based on the spatial unit employed in the analysis. In the medium term, the support for the radical right in exposed neighborhoods converges towards average support levels, as per the contact hypothesis.

Keywords: Voting behavior, Radical Right, Populism, Immigration, Refugees, Contact theory

JEL Classification: R10, R11, R12, D72, J15