The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing

37 Pages Posted: 8 Jan 2008

See all articles by Joe Beaulieu

Joe Beaulieu

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Division of Research and Statistics - Industrial Output Section; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jeffrey A. Miron

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: September 1990

Abstract

This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.

Suggested Citation

Beaulieu, J. Joseph and Miron, Jeffrey A., The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing (September 1990). NBER Working Paper No. w3450. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=471484

J. Joseph Beaulieu (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Division of Research and Statistics - Industrial Output Section

20th and Constitution Ave., NW
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202-452-3819 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Jeffrey A. Miron

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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