Expectations, Sentiments and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

40 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2024

See all articles by Joscha Beckmann

Joscha Beckmann

FernUniversität in Hagen; Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Tjeerd M. Boonman

Monmouth University - Department of Economics, Finance, and Real Estate; Banco de Mexico - Financial Stability Division

Sven Schreiber

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

This paper provides a novel look at capital flow determinants by assessing the role of expectations, uncertainty and media sentiments. Analyzing eight emerging economies, we assess the effects of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professionals and various media-based sentiment indicators based on high frequency news coverage. Our results show that survey and sentiment indicators which are available in real time contain useful information about capital flow dynamics which go beyond the effects of conventional push and pull factors for all countries we analyze. In line with theoretical considerations, good news about the domestic economy tends to increase capital flows.

Keywords: Portfolio capital inflows, analyst forecasts, news sentiments, dispersion, emerging market economies

Suggested Citation

Beckmann, Joscha and Boonman, Tjeerd M. and Schreiber, Sven, Expectations, Sentiments and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4715723 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4715723

Joscha Beckmann

FernUniversität in Hagen ( email )

Universitätsstrasse 41
Feithstrathe 140
Hagen, 58084
Germany

Kiel Institute for the World Economy ( email )

P.O. Box 4309
Kiel, Schleswig-Hosltein D-24100
Germany

Tjeerd M. Boonman (Contact Author)

Monmouth University - Department of Economics, Finance, and Real Estate ( email )

West Long Branch, NJ 07764
United States

Banco de Mexico - Financial Stability Division ( email )

Av. 5 de Mayo 18
Piso 4
Mexico City, 06059
Mexico
+52 55 5237 2000 ext 2047 (Phone)

Sven Schreiber

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
25
Abstract Views
76
PlumX Metrics