ENSO, Climate Change and Economic Dynamics in Peru

Abstract

The El Niño (ENSO) has been increasing its climatic intensity in recent years. Climate change, in turn, is magnifying the impact of this oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon on the economic dynamics of both South America and Peru. Particularly in the case of Peru, the impact of this phenomenon is heterogeneous throughout its territory (heavy rains in the north and east and droughts in the south) and has a varied impact on the different economic sectors: agriculture, industry, commerce, health services and energy. It is therefore necessary to establish an adequate monitoring of its climatic evolution in a more challenging environment such as climate change and to ponder its impact on the economic dynamics of South America and, in particular, of Peru. Thus, this paper evaluates its prospective dynamics in the period 2023-2024 for the Peruvian coast, the Andes and the Amazon basin, analyzing its interaction with the Southeast Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone (SPSA) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). At the same time, its impact on the agricultural sector in northern Peru, the industrial sector in Metropolitan Lima and the hydroelectric power sector in South America is evaluated.

Keywords: Climate Change; ENSO; Prices Dynamics; Industrial Organization; Energy

JEL Classification: Q54, L16