The Path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's Long-Term Pathway for GHG Emission Reduction

29 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2024

See all articles by Puneet Kamboj

Puneet Kamboj

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)

Mohamad Hejazi

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)

Yang Qiu

Government of the United States of America - Joint Global Change Research Institute

Page Kyle

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Gokul Iyer

Government of the United States of America - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Abstract

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to addressing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our analysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring concerted efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the industrial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

Keywords: Net Zero, GHG emissions, Saudi Arabia, GCAM-KSA, Scenario Analysis, Climate Change

Suggested Citation

Kamboj, Puneet and Hejazi, Mohamad and Qiu, Yang and Kyle, Page and Iyer, Gokul, The Path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's Long-Term Pathway for GHG Emission Reduction. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4728054 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4728054

Puneet Kamboj (Contact Author)

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) ( email )

Riyadh, Central Province
Saudi Arabia

Mohamad Hejazi

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) ( email )

Riyadh, Central Province
Saudi Arabia

Yang Qiu

Government of the United States of America - Joint Global Change Research Institute ( email )

College Park, MD
United States

Page Kyle

Joint Global Change Research Institute ( email )

5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500
College Park, MD 20740
United States

Gokul Iyer

Government of the United States of America - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ( email )

901 D Street
370 L'Enfant Promenade, S.W.
Washington, DC 20024-2115
United States

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