Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labour and Schooling

Understanding Children's Work (UCW) Working Paper

28 Pages Posted: 29 Nov 2003

See all articles by Partha Deb

Partha Deb

City University of New York, CUNY Hunter College - Department of Economics

Furio C. Rosati

United Nations - UCW Program; University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics

Date Written: April 2003

Abstract

We construct a joint distribution of fertility and children's activities treating the Poisson process generating the number of children as being endogenous in the multinomial logit process generating children's activities using a latent factor structure. Latent factors are incorporated into the equations for number of children and children's activities to allow for unobserved influences on fertility to affect children's activities, thus enabling us to make a distinction between selection on unobservables and selection on observables. We apply maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques to estimate the parameters of our models. We find that the effect of fertility has a large downward bias in naive models. The marginal effect of fertility on child labor and schooling are twice as large when common unobserved heterogeneity in fertility and activity decisions are accounted for.

Keywords: endogeneity, truncated Poisson, multinominal logit, simulated likelihood, latent factors

JEL Classification: C25, D13, O12

Suggested Citation

Deb, Partha and Rosati, Furio C., Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labour and Schooling (April 2003). Understanding Children's Work (UCW) Working Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=473582 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.473582

Partha Deb

City University of New York, CUNY Hunter College - Department of Economics ( email )

695 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10021
United States

Furio C. Rosati (Contact Author)

United Nations - UCW Program ( email )

ILO Office for Italy and San Marino
Via Panisperna 28
I-00186 Rome
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.ucw-project.org

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Via Columbia n.2
Rome, rome 00100
Italy
6 2020 500 (Fax)

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