Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity
27 Pages Posted: 14 Aug 2007 Last revised: 2 Jan 2023
Date Written: September 1991
Abstract
We propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific "target points," then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending. This theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects
-
Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects
-
Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries
By Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano
-
Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries
By Francesco Giavazzi, Tullio Jappelli, ...
-
Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment
By Alberto F. Alesina, Silvia Ardagna, ...
-
Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience
By Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano
-
The Benefits of Crises for Economic Reforms
By Allan Drazen and Vittorio Grilli
-
Searching for Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy
By Francesco Giavazzi, Tullio Jappelli, ...