Geopolitical Risks and Agricultural Trade Diversification in Southern Africa: Port-level Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War

41 Pages Posted: 8 Mar 2024

See all articles by Sunghun Lim

Sunghun Lim

Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Saera Oh

Michigan State University

Date Written: March 5, 2024

Abstract

With the spread of global agricultural value chains, international geopolitical risks often unintentionally trigger food insecurity in bystander countries. This study explores the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on wheat supplies in South Africa and their trade diversification. Using port-level trade data, we show that South Africa, the main distribution route for South African wheat supplies, rapidly diversified its imports to mitigate geopolitical risk in the aftermath of the war. This sudden import diversification prevented the war-induced decline in average wheat imports, yet it led to an increase in the volatility of annual imports. More importantly, the import diversification contributed to more secure wheat supplies for southern African landlocked countries that were heavily reliant on border imports from South Africa. Our study highlights that sourcing diversification in a country with well-developed port infrastructure could be instrumental in staving off food insecurity in neighboring countries in times of geopolitical crises.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, Wheat, South Africa, Port Import, Trade Diversification

JEL Classification: F14, F63, O13, Q17

Suggested Citation

Lim, Sunghun and Oh, Saera, Geopolitical Risks and Agricultural Trade Diversification in Southern Africa: Port-level Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War (March 5, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4748821 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4748821

Sunghun Lim (Contact Author)

Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness ( email )

273 Martin D. Woodin Hall Louisiana State Universi
Baton Rouge, LA 70803
United States
225-578-2766 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/limsunghun

Saera Oh

Michigan State University ( email )

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