Causal Emissions Factor Benchmarks Using Nuclear Outages

Abstract

One method to decrease carbon dioxide emissions in the electricity sector is to shift the timing of electric load from periods when it causes more pollution to times when it causes less. A key step in implementing this strategy involves measuring changes of emission as a consequence of changes in electricity load, which we define as the consequential emission factor (CEF). Multiple modeling algorithms have previously estimated the CEF. But previous methods have been forced to either calibrate against dispatch modeling assumptions rather than direct empirical evidence, or against statistical models that might not be free of causal confounders. In this work, we demonstrate a technique to estimate the CEF using direct empirical evidence. We do so by leveraging a causally valid natural experiment involving unplanned nuclear power plant outages. The CEFs obtained in this paper can serve as a baseline with which to help evaluate the performance of the EF measuring models.

Keywords: emission, power system, energy, electricity emission, causal inference, load shifting

JEL Classification: Q50,Q54,Q56