World War II Convoys and the Distribution of Value

Abstract

This study measures whether, during World War II, Halifax to Liverpool (HX) convoys that distributed their tonnage more unequally among the ships that composed that convoy were more or less likely to be torpedoed by German submarines. The results find a bifurcation: early in the war, convoys that were more unequal were less likely to be torpedoed, while later in the war it was convoys that were less unequal. Intriguingly, the change in regime coincides with the entry of the United States Navy into the business of guarding convoys in April of 1941.

Keywords: World War II; Convoy system; Mandelbrot; Arthur DeVany