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Global Health Benefits of Policies to Reduce On-Road Vehicle Pollution Through 2040
56 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2024
More...Abstract
Background: Air pollution from road transport-related emissions is a well-documented risk to human health. Our study assessed these health impacts under current and potential emission control policies in 186 countries and territories, including 13,135 urban areas, until 2040, at a 1km resolution.
Methods: We evaluated 15 scenarios based on various policy combinations using ICCT’s Roadmap model for emissions and GEOS-Chem Adjoint v35n for pollutant concentrations. We estimated mortality impacts following GBD 2019 methodology, and an epidemiologically-derived concentration-response model for NO2-attributable pediatric asthma impacts.
Findings: Implementing all measures identified is projected to avoid 1·9 million (95% CI of the central risk estimate 1·3 million-2·4 million) premature deaths and 1·4 million (95% CI of the central risk estimate 0·7 million-1·7 million) new cases of paediatric asthma cumulatively from 2023 to 2040. These health benefits differ by region and age group. Adults aged 65 and older account for 70% of avoidable years of life lost, and children under 5 represent 50% of avoidable new paediatric asthma cases. In countries without Euro 6/VI-equivalent standards, implementing these could achieve 64% and 71% of the total benefits of all emission control measures combined for avoidable premature deaths and new paediatric asthma cases respectively. Developing countries and urban areas hold substantial mitigation potential in new pediatric asthma cases.
Interpretation: Regional disparities in road transport-attributable health burdens are projected to grow without further policies. Stronger policies are needed to mitigate these health impacts, particularly for vulnerable groups like children and older adults.
Funding: This project was supported by FIA Foundation (15.17.18/22), Clean Air Fund (001385), and Pisces Foundation (22-00845). Patrick Wiecko was supported by NASA 80NSSC19K0193 and 80NSSC21K1343.
Declaration of Interest: We declare no competing interests.
Keywords: global health, paediatric asthma, road transport, air pollution, modeling, public policy, zero emission vehicle, emission standard
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