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Global Health Benefits of Policies to Reduce On-Road Vehicle Pollution Through 2040

56 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2024

See all articles by Lingzhi Jin

Lingzhi Jin

International Council on Clean Transportation

Jonathan Benoit

International Council on Clean Transportation

M. Omar Nawaz

George Washington University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

Patricia Ferrini Rodrigues

International Council on Clean Transportation

Patrick Wiecko

University of Colorado Boulder

Joshua Miller

International Council on Clean Transportation

Gabriel Alvarez

International Council on Clean Transportation

Daven K. Henze

University of Colorado at Boulder

Liudmila Osipova

International Council on Clean Transportation

Susan C. Anenberg

George Washington University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

More...

Abstract

Background: Air pollution from road transport-related emissions is a well-documented risk to human health. Our study assessed these health impacts under current and potential emission control policies in 186 countries and territories, including 13,135 urban areas, until 2040, at a 1km resolution.

Methods: We evaluated 15 scenarios based on various policy combinations using ICCT’s Roadmap model for emissions and GEOS-Chem Adjoint v35n for pollutant concentrations. We estimated mortality impacts following GBD 2019 methodology, and an epidemiologically-derived concentration-response model for NO2-attributable pediatric asthma impacts.

Findings: Implementing all measures identified is projected to avoid 1·9 million (95% CI of the central risk estimate 1·3 million-2·4 million) premature deaths and 1·4 million (95% CI of the central risk estimate 0·7 million-1·7 million) new cases of paediatric asthma cumulatively from 2023 to 2040. These health benefits differ by region and age group. Adults aged 65 and older account for 70% of avoidable years of life lost, and children under 5 represent 50% of avoidable new paediatric asthma cases. In countries without Euro 6/VI-equivalent standards, implementing these could achieve 64% and 71% of the total benefits of all emission control measures combined for avoidable premature deaths and new paediatric asthma cases respectively. Developing countries and urban areas hold substantial mitigation potential in new pediatric asthma cases.

Interpretation: Regional disparities in road transport-attributable health burdens are projected to grow without further policies. Stronger policies are needed to mitigate these health impacts, particularly for vulnerable groups like children and older adults.

Funding: This project was supported by FIA Foundation (15.17.18/22), Clean Air Fund (001385), and Pisces Foundation (22-00845). Patrick Wiecko was supported by NASA 80NSSC19K0193 and 80NSSC21K1343.

Declaration of Interest: We declare no competing interests.

Keywords: global health, paediatric asthma, road transport, air pollution, modeling, public policy, zero emission vehicle, emission standard

Suggested Citation

Jin, Lingzhi and Benoit, Jonathan and Nawaz, M. Omar and Rodrigues, Patricia Ferrini and Wiecko, Patrick and Miller, Joshua and Alvarez, Gabriel and Henze, Daven K. and Osipova, Liudmila and Anenberg, Susan C., Global Health Benefits of Policies to Reduce On-Road Vehicle Pollution Through 2040. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4754905 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4754905

Lingzhi Jin (Contact Author)

International Council on Clean Transportation ( email )

Arlington, VA 22207
United States

Jonathan Benoit

International Council on Clean Transportation ( email )

M. Omar Nawaz

George Washington University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health ( email )

Patricia Ferrini Rodrigues

International Council on Clean Transportation ( email )

Patrick Wiecko

University of Colorado Boulder ( email )

256 UCB
Boulder, CO 80300-0256
United States

Joshua Miller

International Council on Clean Transportation ( email )

Gabriel Alvarez

International Council on Clean Transportation ( email )

Daven K. Henze

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

Liudmila Osipova

International Council on Clean Transportation ( email )

Susan C. Anenberg

George Washington University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health ( email )

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