The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: The Great Fire of 1910

73 Pages Posted: 5 Jul 2024 Last revised: 8 Jul 2024

See all articles by Sarah Meier

Sarah Meier

University of Exeter

Eric Strobl

University of Bern

Robert J. R. Elliott

University of Birmingham

Date Written: March 02, 2024

Abstract

The Great Fire of 1910 in the northwestern United States burnt more than 1.2 million hectares in just two days and stands as one of the largest wildfires ever recorded. It led to the introduction of a rigorous fire suppression regime that lasted for much of the 20th century and is therefore the last extreme wildfire event before this paradigm shift. This paper examines the short- and long-term impact of fire-sourced smoke pollution on children, combining historical data with smoke emission and dispersion modelling. The econometric results indicate a 119% increase in excess mortality during the week of the fire and a decrease of 4-14% in later-life socioeconomic status scores 20 and 30 years after the event. This research offers novel insights into wildfire smoke repercussions on health and long-run human capital formation in a setting where avoidance behaviour was minimal.

Keywords: wildfire, air pollution, human capital, health effects, socioeconomic outcomes

Suggested Citation

Meier, Sarah and Strobl, Eric and Elliott, Robert J. R., The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: The Great Fire of 1910 (March 02, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4755404 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4755404

Sarah Meier (Contact Author)

University of Exeter ( email )

Northcote House
The Queen's Drive
Exeter, EX4 4QJ
United Kingdom

Eric Strobl

University of Bern ( email )

Gesellschaftsstrasse 49
Bern, 3001
Switzerland

Robert J. R. Elliott

University of Birmingham ( email )

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