The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: The Great Fire of 1910

Abstract

The Great Fire of 1910 in the northwestern United States burnt more than 1.2 million hectares in just two days and stands as one of the largest wildfires ever recorded. It led to the introduction of a rigorous fire suppression regime that lasted for much of the 20th century and is therefore the last extreme wildfire event before this paradigm shift. This paper examines the short- and long-term impact of fire-sourced smoke pollution on children, combining historical data with smoke emission and dispersion modelling. The econometric results indicate a 119% increase in excess mortality during the week of the fire and a decrease of 4-14% in later-life socioeconomic status scores 20 and 30 years after the event. This research offers novel insights into wildfire smoke repercussions on health and long-run human capital formation in a setting where avoidance behaviour was minimal.

Keywords: wildfire, air pollution, human capital, health effects, socioeconomic outcomes