The Effect of Pilot Climate-Resilient City Policies on Urban Climate Resilience: Evidence from Quasi-Natural Experiments

Abstract

The climate-resilient city model aims to reduce climate risks and enhance resilience. This paper evaluates pilot policies for climate-resilient cities and establishes an evaluation system. Integrating urban systems and management studies, it includes protection, recovery, adaptation, and organizational strength. Using panel data from 286 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2021, we employ quantitative methods like kernel density, Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID), K-means clustering, and dual machine learning (DML). We aim to assess the CRCP's effect on multiple facets, from local to overall, and static to dynamic perspectives. Our findings indicate a generally uneven progression in the climate resilience levels among the cities under study. The CRCP has improved resilience in pilot cities and led to positive spillover effects on neighboring cities. Effectiveness varies, with higher success rates in high-temperature and medium-rainfall cities, and in "MMLL" types. Upgrading infrastructure, especially in water, energy, and transportation, is crucial for CRCP effectiveness. This study offers insights for policymakers in China and globally to promote inclusive, secure, resilient, and sustainable urban development.

Keywords: Climate-resilient cities, Urban Climate Resilience, Fine-grained policy effects assessment, Spatial spillovers, Dual machine learning