Towards Green Development in Zambia: A Mixed-Method Participatory Scenarios Approach

Abstract

In support of Zambia’s stated ambitions to undertake a green economic transition, we carried out a participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore how social and economic recovery and long-term resilience can be integrated with green development in Zambia. Our scenarios adopted a normative framing in exploring how decisions and actions could construct pathways towards desirable outcomes, but also adopted an exploratory perspective in considering the scenarios’ resilience to possible risks and threats. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, due to the importance of connecting scenarios with the deepest concerns of their potential users. We also combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling, in order to be able to explore actor motivations, decisions and policies, as well as physical and technological implications. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, regional-scale investments and economic development strategies, which maintain the viability of rural livelihoods and slow the urbanisation trend. The scenarios are not intended as an unchangeable rule book for the future, but rather as an adaptable framework for decision-making. Decision-makers may use the scenarios to support reflections on a range of inter-temporal and cross-sectoral risks, uncertainties and opportunities, including: assessing infrastructure investments for climate and financial resilience; identifying opportunities for sustainable and inclusive economic diversification and value-addition; considering the role of planning and governance at multiple scales; being aware of cross-sectoral resource issues especially in respect of water resources; and forging long-term strategic relationships with international external partners. The paper demonstrates how a participatory mixed-methods approach to scenario development can be applied to sustainable development in a developing country context.

Keywords: Zambia, participatory, mixed-method, scenarios, sustainable, green growth, green development

JEL Classification: Q20,Q28