Spatio-Temporal Occurrence of Drought within the Kruger National Park and Lessons for the Future

Abstract

Drought is a normal, recurring climatic phenomenon occurring across the world. It is commonly caused by a natural decrease in the amount of precipitation received over a specified period. South Africa, among other countries is anticipated to experience frequent, more intense, and prolonged droughts as a result of the changing climate. Droughts can have a particularly negative impact on national park ecosystem processes. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, this study combines qualitative insights from interviews with quantitative analysis of historical precipitation data to comprehensively investigate drought dynamics in the Southern region of the Kruger National Park (KNP). A survey with park officials (n = 42) was also carried out. By integrating perspectives from key stakeholders with empirical data on precipitation patterns, the study provides an in-depth analysis of drought occurrence and its implications for park management. The clearly established trigger points based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serve as early warning indicators for impending drought events of various severity, facilitating proactive management strategies and resource allocation. These will also enable park authorities to swiftly respond to emerging drought conditions. This could be facilitated by initiating timely interventions on potential impacts on ecosystems, wildlife, and visitor experiences. These proactive measures not only enhance the park's resilience to climate variability, but also contribute to the long-term sustainability of KNP by minimizing the socio-economic and environmental consequences of drought events.

Keywords: Drought, Climate Change, tourism, SPI, Anticipatory action, national parks