College and Career Ready: How Well Does 8th Grade MAP Performance Predict Secondary Educational Attainment?

33 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2024

See all articles by Darrin DeChane

Darrin DeChane

Saint Louis University - Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research

Takako Nomi

Saint Louis University - College of Education and Public Service

Michael J. Podgursky

University of Missouri at Columbia - Department of Economics; Saint Louis University - Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research

Date Written: April 8, 2024

Abstract

Like most other states, Missouri uses assessments intended to measure whether students are on a pathway to “college and career readiness.” The state longitudinal data system now has the capacity to directly test that claim. We make use of 8th-grade assessment (MAP) scores in Math, Science, and Communication Arts for roughly 260,000 first-time Missouri freshman who began high school between Fall, 2009 and Fall, 2012. These students were tracked through high school and for five years following on-time high school graduation. We find a strong positive association between MAP performance scores in 8th grade Math, Science, and Communication Arts and post-secondary college attendance and degree completion. This is true overall and for White, Black, and Hispanic students disaggregated by gender. Proficiency on all three exams matters even more. Based on a logistic forecasting model, if all students who scored below Proficient on the 8th-grade MAP raised their scores to Proficient, the number earning post-secondary degrees would increase by roughly 50 percent. Black and Hispanic students earning post-secondary degrees would increase by roughly 150 and 75 percent, respectively. We conclude that 8th-grade MAP proficiency scores are highly informative about whether students are on a pathway to “college and career readiness.”

Keywords: College and career readiness, postsecondary education, MAP

JEL Classification: I21, I23, I24

Suggested Citation

DeChane, Darrin and Nomi, Takako and Podgursky, Michael J., College and Career Ready: How Well Does 8th Grade MAP Performance Predict Secondary Educational Attainment? (April 8, 2024). Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research Working Paper No. 24-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4787830 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4787830

Darrin DeChane

Saint Louis University - Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research ( email )

3700 West Pine Mall Blvd. Fusz Hall, 358
St. Louis, MO 63103
United States

Takako Nomi

Saint Louis University - College of Education and Public Service ( email )

3500 Lindell Blvd
Fitzgerald Hall
St. Louis, MO 63103
United States
314-977-2495 (Phone)

Michael J. Podgursky (Contact Author)

University of Missouri at Columbia - Department of Economics ( email )

118 Professional Building
Columbia, MO 65211
United States

Saint Louis University - Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research ( email )

3700 West Pine Mall Blvd. Fusz Hall, 358
St. Louis, MO 63103
United States

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