Systematic Credit Strategies: Factor Dynamics and Cross-Market Spillovers

76 Pages Posted: 25 Apr 2024 Last revised: 14 May 2024

Date Written: April 23, 2024

Abstract

We borrow 150+ signals from the asset pricing literature on stock returns to empirically explore factor dynamics in bond and CDS markets and their interactions with stock markets. We document a strong similarity in the rank-order of overall factor performance across equity and credit markets. Equity and credit factor time series correlations are largely driven by the factor's exposure to credit risk. We show that bond factors exhibit a pronounced momentum effect, which entirely subsumes traditional bond return momentum and spills over to stock factors, generating an annualized return of 9.6%. This spillover is rooted in default risk information going from bond to stock factors, with the strongest predictability occurring in factors associated with less-creditworthy firms and more-actively-traded bonds. These insights shed light on trends in credit factors and the systematic component of the equity-credit relationship, offering valuable perspectives for systematic investment strategies in credit markets.

Keywords: Factor Investing; Factor Momentum, Cross-Market Spillovers, Bond Markets, CDS Markets, Equity-Credit Integration

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G40

Suggested Citation

Keshavarz, Javad and Sirmans, Stace, Systematic Credit Strategies: Factor Dynamics and Cross-Market Spillovers (April 23, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4805159 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4805159

Javad Keshavarz

Auburn University ( email )

415 West Magnolia Avenue
Auburn, AL 36849
United States

Stace Sirmans (Contact Author)

Auburn University ( email )

Auburn, AL 36849
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.stacesirmans.com

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