WFH, AI, and Labor Markets: Three Predictions

13 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2024

See all articles by Steven J. Davis

Steven J. Davis

University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Hoover Institution

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 29, 2024

Abstract

This essay offers three predictions for U.S. labor markets: (1) Work from home (WFH) is here to stay. Over the next five years, I anticipate a modest rise in the WFH rate. (2) AI will not drive large-scale job losses over the next ten years. (3) To the extent that AI displaces some jobs (while creating others), it will bring less economic hardship and dislocation than suggested by U.S. experience with the loss of manufacturing jobs.

Keywords: WFH, work from home, remote work, jobs, locational constraints, artificial intelligence, AI, job loss, labor market transformation

JEL Classification: J20

Suggested Citation

Davis, Steven J., WFH, AI, and Labor Markets: Three Predictions (April 29, 2024). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2024-51, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4811017 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4811017

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