Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism

35 Pages Posted: 4 Jan 2004 Last revised: 8 May 2012

See all articles by Howard Kunreuther

Howard Kunreuther

University of Pennsylvania - Operations, Information and Decisions Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Erwann Michel-Kerjan

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School - Center for Risk Management

Beverly Porter

AIR Worldwide Corporation

Date Written: December 2003

Abstract

This paper discusses new challenges we face with terrorism as a catastrophic risk by focusing on risk assessment, risk management as well as risk financing issues. The special characteristics of terrorism compared with major natural hazards call for the development of public-private partnerships, as recognized in November 2002 when the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) was passed. This paper shows, however, that the temporary insurance system established by TRIA is neither a complete answer nor a definitive one. It raises fundamental questions for U.S. insurers as to how they will estimate the risk in order to set premiums for terrorist coverage that they now must offer to their clients. We discuss some of the most recent developments of terrorism models for helping insurers and reinsurers assess the premiums they should charge and how much coverage they can assume as well as for firms to better understand their exposure. Since the passage of TRIA, the current level of demand for insurance coverage has remained low and we discuss some factors that may contribute to it. After presenting alternative foreign public-private partnerships and discussing the potential role for terrorist catastrophe bonds, we provide some features of a more sustainable program for terrorism insurance in the U.S. after December 31, 2005.

Suggested Citation

Kunreuther, Howard C. and Michel-Kerjan, Erwann and Porter, Beverly, Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism (December 2003). NBER Working Paper No. w10179. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=481451

Howard C. Kunreuther (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Operations, Information and Decisions Department ( email )

3730 Walnut Street
558 & 559 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19104-5340
United States
212-854-0423 (Phone)
215-573-2130 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Erwann Michel-Kerjan

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School - Center for Risk Management ( email )

Jon M Huntsman Hall, Suite 500
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

Beverly Porter

AIR Worldwide Corporation ( email )

101 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA 02199
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
80
Abstract Views
1,649
rank
303,195
PlumX Metrics