The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects

26 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2007

See all articles by David K. Backus

David K. Backus

NYU Stern School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: November 1993

Abstract

I examine the evolution of the Japanese trade balance and its relation to the terms of trade and the value of the yen. Using a vector time series model, I predict that the trade surplus will fall from a high of 3.7 percent of GNP in late 1992 to about 2.6 percent in 1995. This relatively modest decline is an indication that relative prices are not the dominant factor influencing the Japanese trade balance.

Suggested Citation

Backus, David K., The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects (November 1993). NBER Working Paper No. w4553. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=481482

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